文献出处：Geltner D. The study on the relationship between the monetary policy and real estate prices [J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2015, 5(3): 522-532.
原文
The study on the relationship between the monetary policy and real estate prices
Geltner D
Abstract
Monetary policy has an important influence on the real economy, monetary policy from the set to play a role affect real economy exists a conduction process, and the effect of monetary policy is good or not directly depends on whether the conduction process smoothly. As assets related trade, with pure inflation index to measure the rationality of the monetary policy effect was questioned, the control effect is more and more attention to asset price reasonable or not. Especially in recent years the real estate industry has developed rapidly in our country, the real estate investment in fixed assets investment in the country to the rapid growth of the share of the real estate industry plays a decisive role to the development of the economy. Keywords: real estate prices; monetary policy
1 Introduction
The transmission mechanism of monetary policy as the most important part of monetary policy research field, research is how monetary policy effects on the real economy, to achieve the ultimate goal of policy, exert its function of macroeconomic adjustment. This transmission mechanism will with the passage of time and the development of the economy changing, in different countries and regions have different transmission path, therefore, according to different economy we must want to undertake an independent monetary policy transmission mechanism research. Since Keynes established macroeconomic analysis framework, different economic schools according to the different economic conditions put forward their own theory of monetary policy transmission. In general, monetary policy transmission way interest rates, exchange rates, credit and asset price way, etc. With the development of the economy, despite of the related assets other than monetary assets and wealth can alsobe to give the effect of monetary policy to the real economy. This article selects the important in modern life of an asset prices, real estate prices as the research object, the real estate as a special asset in today's society, with dual attributes, it is not only consumer goods, and investment. At the same time, in the modern real estate development model, the real estate industry and the social investment, consumer spending and bank credit is closely related to many aspects, can become the important carrier of the monetary policy transmission. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy and its impact on the macro economy is the core content of theory of monetary policy. The development of the real estate market and deepen bring brand-new conduction path for the monetary policy transmission at the same time, also make the implementation of the policy face greater risks, increasing the difficulty of policy making. To investigate whether monetary policy through regulating the real estate price to control the real economy, the purpose of testing the transmission path of existence and effectiveness, can not only improve the monetary policy transmission theories, but also for the steady growth of the real economy and the healthy development of the real estate market has important theoretical and practical significance.
2 Research review
As a kind of asset prices, real estate prices in the first place and didn't get everybody's attention. After the economic crisis in the 1930 s and 80 s respectively in the theory of asset prices and monetary policy this problem of two orgasms, during this period, scholars from different perspectives on this issue a lot of theoretical and empirical studies, a series of related conclusions, system analyzes the asset prices and monetary policy and the relationship between the real economy in all aspects.
Franco Modigliani’s theory of life cycle theory and Tobin’s Q is the asset price transmission channels of monetary policy can play a role of theoretical basis. But the original study of asset prices more focused on the discussion of the price of the stock, and ignored the role of the real estate price changes. However, with the continuous development of the real estate market, asset price theory is more and more focus on real estate prices. Many scholars have studied the real estate prices in the monetary
policy transmission plays an important role. Meltzer, for example, (1995), as a representative of monetarism, he thought that monetary policy can effectively regulate the real estate price, and the changes in asset prices can have an important impact on output and employment, asset prices play an important role in the transmission mechanism. Mishkin (2001) studies have shown that real estate prices can affect the conduction effect of aggregate demand, but the excessive attention to real estate prices can also affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. American economist Good hart (2000) based on the idea of asset prices would act as a monetary policy, research and analyze data on the United States, to verify whether asset price changes on inflation have expected effect, explore the monetary policy on asset prices can better achieve the ultimate goal of the central bank. The conclusion is: asset prices (including the real estate price) of the change of related reaction increases the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Ireland (2005) study shows that monetary policy can affect real economy through real estate price conduction of some real variables, such as output and employment. Calza, Monacelli (2007). Research results indicate that the mortgage market and the more developed countries, the relationship of real estate prices and consumption more obvious, so the real estate price conduction effect is stronger.
Many scholars study the effect of mone
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