According to spot check data released recently by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ), the percent of pass of widely used PVC, crosslinked polyethylene and PVC soft cable is merely 88.4%, far below that of other major industrial products; in many provinces and municipalities, the pass rate in spot check is even below 60%.
To improve that, the AQSIQ teamed up with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China Machinery Industry Federation, China Electricity Council, State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd. to release the Instructions on Promoting the Improvement of Wire and Cable Products (hereafter referred to as “Instructions”).
The Instructions point out that the overall quality of wire and cable products remains low in China, scamp work and stint material and fake products could be seen almost everywhere, and the quality problems pose significant safety, environmental and health hazards.
At the same time, the Instructions point out China’s wire and cable industry face many problems, including serious overcapacity, low industry concentration, homogeneous low and middle-end products, disorderly excessive expansion of industry, and irregular market competition.
To address the above issues, the six ministries and commissions pointed out that exit mechanism will be introduced into the wire and cable industry: Enterprises that do not comply with the industry policy, or enterprises with prominent product quality issues or quality accidents will be ordered to withdraw from the industry. Industry insiders say China has worked out a framework for curbing the production capacity of the wire and cable industry. Once the rules and date for implementation are announced, the wire and cable industry may usher in a consolidation period.
It is learned that the wire and cable industry is downstream business for copper, and demand for copper in the industry takes up 60%-86% in the total demand for copper in China.
Since the second half of this year, due to sharp rise and fall in the copper market, demand for copper has become sluggish. The primary field supporting copper consumption in China is the wire and cable industry. Analysts say once exit mechanism is introduced into the wire and cable industry, it will have direct impact on the demand for copper.
In addition, according to industry insiders, as weather gets cold, in December operating rate will hit bottom in the wire and cable industry, and demand for copper in power grids will subside in Q4. Therefore, downstream consumption will hardly be optimistic in Q4’11 and even Q1’12.
The wire and cable industry is one of the largest primary supporting industries of the national economy. According to the Wire and Cable branch of the CEEIA, domestic conductor output increased from 2.88 million tons in 2000 to 6.48 million tons in 2007, of which copper consumption rose from 1.72 million tons to 3.78 million tons (note: 315,000 tons/month). In 2008, monthly copper consumption increased another 10, 000 tons. Great demand generated from industrialization and urbanization will
become the major driving force behind the sustained growth of copper consumption. Current market demand is concentrated in power cables for transmission and distribution grids, cables for renewable energy sources like wind power and nuclear power, automobile low-voltage wires cables for modern transportation types including urban metro lines and electrical locomotives, and cables for stations. The wire and cable industry accounts for 60-70% of domestic copper consumption, of which 20-30% is used for electric cables, 28-30% for wires and cables used in electrical applications, 26- 29% for winding wires, 5-7% for communication cables and 4-5% for other uses.
Power cables account for the majority of wire and cable production. There are several mistakes in the non-ferrous metals data of June as published by National Bureau of Statistics, among which the most obvious relate to power cables. Power cable output in June amounted to 2.0687 million km, an increase of 11.71% compared to the same period last year. This is the second largest monthly output ever recorded in China. In the first half of this year, power cable output in China stood at 10.0406 million km, an increase of 21.29% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, output of supporting electrical equipment, i.e. transformers, low-voltage switches and high-voltage switches increased by 17.51%, 20.81% and 40.09%, respectively, in the first 6 months compared to the same period last year.
Between March and June, there were 4 continuous months of copper output in excess of 800,000 tons. This was mainly due to the fact that “among all major copper rod projects, over 800,000 tons of capacity was commissioned between the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009” and that “among all copper strip projects, commissioned capacity was estimated to be over 200,000 tons between the second half of 2008 and the second half of 2009”. The majority of newly added copper strip capacity is said to target under-demand high-precision products such as oxygen-free copper power cable strips, transformer copper strips, lead frame copper strips and copper strips for electric appliances.
The copper production and power cable correlation curve shows that monthly copper output was approx. 500,000 tons in 2007, 600,000 tons in 2008, and 700,000 tons in the first half of 2009. Output reduction in January and February has been compensated for by constantly increasing output since March, and the power cables curve corresponds to a large extent with the copper output curve. Output in June is the second-highest since Dec. 2008, at 2.3845 million km. Therefore, the gradual growth of copper consumption from March is concentrated in the power cable sector of the wire and cable industry.
Surve
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