2021-10-27 08:10

英语原文共 8 页

Quantitative indicator of homeostatic risk perception in car following

Guangquan Lua, Bo Chengb, Qingfeng Lina, Yunpeng Wanga

a School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

b State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China


Driving behavior is largely affected by the risk perception of drivers. On the basis of risk homeostasis theory, we regard that drivers may adjust car movement according to the perceived risks fluctuating around a target level. However, the manner by which risk perception is quantified remains unclear. We propose assumptions on the quantitative indicators of risk perception and identify a suitable quantitative indicator of risk perception in car-following process. Three risk indicators are discussed, i.e. time-to-collision (TTC), time headway (TH), and safety margin (SM). Using homeostatic features as bases, we found that SM more suitably quantifies homeostatic risk perception than TTC or TH does. Data collected from video drive recorders installed in taxis operating in Beijing are used to analyze the target risk level of SM (desired SM, or DSM) of professional drivers during the car-following process. The data collected by Ahn et al. (2004) to verify Newellrsquo;s model are converted into DSM data to further analyze the target risk level of general drivers. The DSM histogram of professional drivers shows that the standard deviation of the DSM value is 0.115, with a mean value of 0.862 and a total distribution close to the normal distribution. For a general driver, the mean value of DSM is 0.896, which is higher than that of professional drivers. This research may shed lights on the understanding of driving behavior.[1]

copy;2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


Guangquan Lua,Bo Chengb,Qingfeng Lina,Yunpeng Wanga

a 北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京100191

b 清华大学汽车安全与节能国家重点实验室,北京100084


驾驶行为在很大程度上受驾驶人风险感知的影响。在风险稳态理论的基础上,我们认为驾驶人可以根据在目标水平附近波动的感知风险来调整汽车运动。然而,风险感知量化的方式仍不清楚。我们提出了风险感知量化指标的假设,并确定了跟车过程中风险感知的合适量化指标。讨论了三个风险指标,即碰撞时间(Time-to-Collision, TTC),车头时距(Time-Headway, TH)和安全裕度(Safety-Margin, SM)。使用稳态特征作为基础,我们发现SM比TTC或TH更适合量化稳态风险感知。从在北京运营的出租车中安装的视频记录器收集的数据用于分析在跟车过程中专业驾驶人的安全裕度(期望的安全裕度(desired SM或称作DSM))。被Ahn等(2004)收集的数据将用来验证Newell的模型是否转换为目标安全等级(Desired Safety Margin,DSM)数据,以进一步分析一般驾驶人的目标风险等级。专业驾驶人的DSM直方图显示DSM值的标准偏差为0.115,平均值为0.862,总分布接近正态分布。对于一般驾驶人,DSM的平均值为0.896,高于专业驾驶人的平均值。这项研究可能会对驾驶行为的理解有所启发。[2]1

copy;2012 Elsevier Ltd保留所有权利


Generally, driving behavior is largely influenced by the psycho-logical status and characteristics of drivers. According to the theories of risk homeostasis (Malnaca, 2008; Trimpop, 1996; Vrolix, 2006), risk compensation (Dulisse, 1997), behavioral adaptation (Hoedemaeker and Brookhuis, 1998; Jonah et al., 2001; Lewis-Evans and Charlton, 2006; Reinhardt-Rutland, 2001), and risk adaptation (Koornstra, 2009), perceived risk affects onersquo;s driving behavior.



Decisions regarding vehicle maneuvers under a given situation appear to be a function of perceived risk (Colbourn, 1978). To explain driving behavior, we must understand how drivers perceive risk. Risk perception is an interesting and important is-sue; different researchers focus on it for various purposes. Thomas and Walton (2007) measured perceived risk on the basis of the self-reported and actual hand positions of sports utility vehicle (SUV) and car drivers. Siren and Kjaelig;r (2011) studied how older people construct their perceptions of risk and safety by analyzing material from focus groups conducted with Danish senior citizens using qualitative methods. Tarko (2009) modeled the speed selection of drivers as a trade-off behavior, and stated that perceived disutility (the sum of the subjective cost of travel time, perceived risk of crashing and its potential consequences, and perceived enforcement of speed limits) is a non-linear function of speed. Despite the significance of risk perception, little research has been conducted on the manner by which risk perception is quantified or how a parameter that represents perceived risk is constructed. Risk homeostasis theory (RHT) may provide clues on the latter.


Homeostasis, or the process of fluctuation around a target level, is the property of a system that regulates its internal environment to maintain a stable, constant condition (Cannon, 1929). For in-stance, humans maintain a near-constant body temperature to adapt to diverse climates. Some researchers view risk-taking as homeostatic (Malnaca,2008; Trimpop,1996; Vrolix,2006).


RHT, developed by Wilde (1982b), maintains that individuals accept a certain level of subjectively estimated risk to thei

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