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Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 159 – 165
12th International Conference 'Organization and Traffic Safety Management in large cities', SPbOTSIC-2016, 28-30 September 2016, St. Petersburg, Russia
Traffic Forecasting Model for a Road Section
Anzhelika Dombalyan a*, Viktor Kocherga, Elena Semchugova, Nikolai Negrov
Don State Technical University, 162 Sotsialisticheskaya Str., Rostov-on-Don, 344000, Russia
Abstract
The paper presents a traffic forecasting model for a road section based on a computer model of the transportation system of a traffic gravity section. Traffic forecasting is an integral part of the process of designing of road facilities, starting from investment feasibility study to developing of working documentation. Determination of transportation and distribution of cars in sections are performed under a set of interrelated factors. Complete and valid consideration of these factors for complex road networks is possible only by means of mathematical models and corresponding software applications. Accuracy and consistency of the forecast determines validity of almost all the main characteristics of the designed object starting from direction of the route and location of connection points to the existing elements of the road network, ending with specific planning solutions for road facilities.
copy; 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference “Organization and Traffic Safety Management in large cities”
Keywords: toll road; transportation model; traffic forecasting; simulation of traffic flows distribution
- Introduction
Traffic forecasting is an essential element of efficient development of road networks of cities, districts and regions at the national level [Naumova and Zyryanov (2015)]. Development and implementation of a computer model of a transportation system of traffic gravity areas is the basis of traffic forecasting. Simulation of traffic distribution is based on internationally accepted principles of “user equilibrium model”. This principle implies that the time spent on a trip depends on traffic at different sections of the road network, and the driver chooses trip routes
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 0-000-000-0000 ; fax: 0-000-000-0000 .
E-mail address: anzhelika-888@mail.ru a*
2352-1465 copy; 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference “Organization and Traffic Safety
Management in large cities”
doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2017.01.040
- Anzhelika Dombalyan et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 159 – 165
considering the time to be spent. Such approach allows taking into account not only the structure of the road network and distances of different routes, but delays associated with traffic intensity [Federal Road Agency (Rosavtodor) of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation (2003)].
- Main text
In recent decades, toll roads have become widespread in many countries around the world; their number and length increase. Toll road management systems are also being developed. A lot of developing countries pursue programs of construction of toll roads with private investment, so that positive practice of development and implementation of toll road systems expands.
The paper reveals results of traffic forecasting for the road segment Km 1119 500 to Km 1195 000 of the
road M-4 “Don” where it is planned to establish toll collection points in the nearest future. The project uses the data on traffic intensity, received during surveys conducted by the North Caucasian branch of OAO GIPRODORNII. The simulation area of the survey included the whole territory of the Krasnodar Krai and the Rostov Oblast. The simulation area was divided into separate traffic areas. These areas included territorial units characterized by relatively homogeneous social and economic parameters within such areas. Scheme of traffic intensity forecasting for toll roads and a transportation model structure are shown in Figures 1 and 2.
Fig. 1. Scheme of traffic forecasting on toll roads.
Anzhelika Dombalyan et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 159 – 165
Modern domestic and foreign practice uses several software packages, focused on simulation of transport and passenger flows. The most famous foreign developments that are actively promoted at the Russian market are VISUM (Germany), EMME / 2 – EMME / 3 (Canada), TRANUS (Brazil), AIMSUN (Spain) and others.
Fig. 2. Structure of a transportation model.
Almost all foreign and domestic models of forecasting of transportation and passenger flows use step by step procedure of model calculations.
The first step is preparation of baseline information on the transportation network and its performance, on
terminal servers, characterizing distribution of transportation demand. Different models differ in the degree of information detailing and its presentation and calculation formulas; differences, at that, can be quite significant.
The second step implies input of information about transportation demand and / or its characteristics necessary
for its determination. In the first case, mobility plans representing information on transportation demand are entered m
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Traffic Forecasting Model for a Road Section
道路路段交通预测模型
Anzhelika Dombalyan a*, Viktor Kocherga, Elena Semchugova, Nikolai Negrov
Abstract
The paper presents a traffic forecasting model for a road section based on a computer model of the transportation system of a traffic gravity section. Traffic forecasting is an integral part of the process of designing of road facilities, starting from investment feasibility study to developing of working documentation. Determination of transportation and distribution of cars in sections are performed under a set of interrelated factors. Complete and valid consideration of these factors for complex road networks is possible only by means of mathematical models and corresponding software applications. Accuracy and consistency of the forecast determines validity of almost all the main characteristics of the designed object starting from direction of the route and location of connection points to the existing elements of the road network, ending with specific planning solutions for roadfacilities.
Keywords: toll road; transportation model; traffic forecasting; simulation of traffic flows distribution
摘要
本文展现一个道路路段交通预测模型，该模型是基于交通重力模型的交通系统的计算机模型。交通预测是道路设施设计中不可或缺的一部分，从可行性研究的投资到工作文档的编制过程都会涉及到。在一组相互关联的因素下，对车辆的运输和分配进行了确定。只有通过数学模型和相应的软件应用，才能完全有效地考虑复杂道路网络的这些因素。预测的准确性和一致性决定了设计目标的几乎所有主要特征的有效性，从线路的路线和连接点的位置到道路网络的现有要素都会受到影响，直到以特定的道路设施规划解决方案来结束预测。
关键词：收费公路；运输模型；交通预测；交通流分布仿真
- Introduction
Traffic forecasting is an essential element of efficient development of road networks of cities, districts and regions at the national level [Naumova and Zyryanov (2015)]. Development and implementation of a computer model of a transportation system of traffic gravity areas is the basis of traffic forecasting. Simulation of traffic distribution is based on internationally accepted principles of “user equilibrium model”. This principle implies that the time spent on a trip depends on traffic at different sections of the road network, and the driver chooses trip routes. considering the time to be spent. Such approach allows taking into account not only the structure of the road network and distances of different routes, but delays associated with traffic intensity [Federal Road Agency (Rosavtodor) of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation (2003)].
- 前言
交通预测是城市、地区和地区公路网络高效发展的重要组成部分[Naumova and Zyryanov (2015)]。交通重力模型场交通系统的计算机模型的开发与实现是交通预测的基础。流量分配的仿真是基于国际公认的“用户均衡模型”原则。这一原则意味着，旅行的时间取决于道路网中不同路段的交通，并且驾驶者在选择旅行路线时会考虑所要花费的时间。这种方法不仅考虑到道路网的结构和不同路线的距离，而且还考虑到与交通强度有关的延误[Federal Road Agency(Rosavtodor) of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation (2003)]。
- Main text
In recent decades, toll roads have become widespread in many countries around the world; their number and length increase. Toll road management systems are also being developed. A lot of developing countries pursue programs of construction of toll roads with private investment, so that positive practice of development and implementation of toll road systems expands.
The paper reveals results of traffic forecasting for the road segment Km 1119 500 to Km 1195 000 of the road M-4 “Don” where it is planned to establish toll collection points in the nearest future. The project uses the data on traffic intensity, received during surveys conducted by the North Caucasian branch of OAO GIPRODORNII. The simulation area of the survey included the whole territory of the Krasnodar Krai and the Rostov Oblast. The simulation area was divided into separate traffic areas. These areas included territorial units characterized by relatively homogeneous social and economic parameters within such areas. Scheme of traffic intensity forecasting for toll roads and a transportation model structure are shown in Figures 1 and 2.
Fig. 1. Scheme of traffic forecasting on toll roads.
Modern domestic and foreign practice uses several software packages, focused on simulation of transport and passenger flows. The most famous foreign developments that are actively promoted at the Russian market are VISUM (Germany), EMME / 2 – EMME / 3 (Canada), TRANUS (Brazil), AIMSUN (Spain) and others.
Fig. 2. Structure of a transportation model.
Almost all foreign and domestic models of forecasting of transportation and passenger flows use step by step procedure of model calculations.
The first step is preparation of baseline information on the transportation network and its performance, on terminal servers, characterizing distribution of transportation demand. Different models differ in the degree of information detailing and its presentation and calculation formulas; differences, at that, can be quite significant.
The second step implies input of information about transportation demand and / or its characteristics necessary for its determination. In the first case, mobility plans representing information on transportation demand are entered manually or generated on the basis of automated processing of results of surveys (interviews) or other data. In the second case, mobility plans are designed as a result of model calculations. As a rule, foreign models apply the first method, while domestic models are advanced mostly with computational methods. Calculation methods of mobility plan development are different for different models and are characterized by varying degrees of detail.
The third step provides for distribution of transportation demand defined in the previous step throughout the transport network. Developing transportation networks and improving their performance can lead not only to redistribution of transportation demand in favor of users with better performance, but also to create some additional dema
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