未来的历史外文翻译资料

 2022-03-16 11:03

Chapter 7

The History of the Future

With John J. Quirk

In The Image of the Future (1961) F. L. Polak has traced the human preoccupation with the future to its ancient roots in Delphic oracles and astrological priest- hoods. However, the modern history of the future originates with the rise of science and onset of the age of exploration. Armed with the techniques of modern science, especially the new measuring devices of precise clocks and telescopes, a secular priesthood seized hold of the idea of a perfect future, a zone of experience beyond ordinary history and geography, a new region of time blessed with a perfect landscape and a perfection of man and society. Nevertheless, there exists a continuity from the ancient astrologers of the temple, tribe, and city to modern scientists, for both are elevated castes who profess special knowledge of the future—indeed, establish a claim of eminent domain over the next stages of human history.

Modern oracles, like their ancient counterparts, constitute a privileged class who monopolize new forms of knowledge and alternatively panic and enrapture large audiences as they portray new versions of the future. Moreover, modern scientific elites often occupy the same double role of oracles to the people and servants of the ruling class as did the astrologers of ancient civilization. And they rely on a similar appeal to authority. Ancient astrologers used their ability to predict the behavior of planets to order social life through the calendar and to regulate agriculture. The knowledge of astronomical order in turn supported their authority as all-purpose seers capable of taming the future. Similarly, modern scientists use their capacity to predict the behavior of narrow, closed systems to claim the right to predict and order all human futures.

And yet while the future as a prophetic form has a long history, the future as a predictable region of experience never appears. For the future is always offstage and never quite makes its entrance into history; the future is a time that never arrives but is always awaited. To understand the dilemma of the future, we might take a cue from the scholar reflecting on the loss of interest in

history, who asked, “Does the past have a future?” and ourselves inquire, “What sort of a past has the future had?” The future as an idea indeed has a definite history and has served as a powerful political and cultural weapon, particularly in the last two centuries. During this period the idea of the future has been presented and functioned in American and British life in three quite distinct ways.

First, the future is often regarded as cause for a revitalization of optimism, an exhortation to the public to keep “faith,” and is embodied in commemorative expositions of progress, world fairs, oratorical invocations, and the declaration of national and international goals. Second, the future, in the politics of literary prophecy, is attractively portrayed as the fulfillment of a particular ideology or idealism. The past and present are rewritten to evidence a momentous changing of the times in which particular policies and technologies will yield a way out of current dilemmas and a new age of peace, democracy, and ecological harmony will reign. Third, the future has acquired a new expression in the development of modern technologies of information processing and decision making by computer and cybernated devices. Here the future is a participation ritual of technological exorcism whereby the act of collecting data and allowing the public to participate in extrapolating trends and making choices is con- sidered a method of cleansing confusion and relieving us from human fallibilities.

I

Throughout American history an exhortation to the future has been a standard inaugural for observing key anniversaries and renewed declarations of national purpose. At celebrations of science and industry and in the orations of public officials, the invocation of a sublime technological future elevates the prosaic and pedestrian commonplaces of the “American creed” with its promises of progress and prosperity to an appeal for public confidence in established institutions and industrial practices. This exhortation to the sublime future is an attempt to ward off dissent and to embellish cosmetically the blemishes of the body politic with imagery of a greater future for all.

The strategy of the future as exhortation was exemplified by the Centennial Exhibition staged in Philadelphia in 1876. The American Centennial was observed through the preferred nineteenth-century symbol of progress and optimism, the industrial exhibit. The initial purpose of the exhibit was to testify to American unity eleven years after the Civil War. However, the magnetic attraction of the exhibit was the Hall of Machinery with thirteen acres of machines connected by pulleys, shafts, wheels, and belts to a giant Corliss engine in the central transept. Symbolically, President Grant opened

the Centennial by turning the levers that brought the giant engine to life, assisted by Dom Pedro, the Emperor of Brazil. The Corliss engine dominating the Centennial illustrated the giantism of nineteenth-century mechanical tech- nology, which enraptured both public and politicians. The machines were symbols of the grandeur and strength of the American people and a hopeful sign for the second century of American life. Even literary types such as William Dean Howells were overcome by the Corliss engine: “in these things of iron and steel . . . the national genius freely speaks; by and by the inspired marbles, the breathing canvases, the great literature; for the present America is voluble in the strong metals and their infinite uses” (Brown, 1966: 130).

While the giant hardware of the “Age of

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Chapter 7

The History of the Future

未来的历史

With John J. Quirk

In The Image of the Future (1961) F. L. Polak has traced the human preoccupation with the future to its ancient roots in Delphic oracles and astrological priest- hoods. However, the modern history of the future originates with the rise of science and onset of the age of exploration. Armed with the techniques of modern science, especially the new measuring devices of precise clocks and telescopes, a secular priesthood seized hold of the idea of a perfect future, a zone of experience beyond ordinary history and geography, a new region of time blessed with a perfect landscape and a perfection of man and society. Nevertheless, there exists a continuity from the ancient astrologers of the temple, tribe, and city to modern scientists, for both are elevated castes who profess special knowledge of the future—indeed, establish a claim of eminent domain over the next stages of human history.

在《未来的影像》(1961)中，F. L.波拉克(F. L. Polak)描绘了人类对未来的关注，其根源在于它在德尔斐神谕和占星术牧师中的古老根源。然而，未来的现代历史源于科学的兴起和探索时代的开始。配备现代科学技术,特别是新测量设备的精确时钟和望远镜,一个世俗的牧师的想法抓住了一个完美的未来,一个区域的经验超出普通的历史和地理,一个新区域的时间带来完美的景观和人类、社会的完美。然而，从古代的庙宇、部落、城市到现代科学家，都有一种连续性，因为他们都是高等级的种姓，他们对未来有特殊的认识——事实上，他们在人类历史的下一个阶段建立了一个显赫的领域。

Modern oracles, like their ancient counterparts, constitute a privileged class who monopolize new forms of knowledge and alternatively panic and enrapture large audiences as they portray new versions of the future. Moreover, modern scientific elites often occupy the same double role of oracles to the people and servants of the ruling class as did the astrologers of ancient civilization. And they rely on a similar appeal to authority. Ancient astrologers used their ability to predict the behavior of planets to order social life through the calendar and to regulate agriculture. The knowledge of astronomical order in turn supported their authority as all-purpose seers capable of taming the future. Similarly, modern scientists use their capacity to predict the behavior of narrow, closed systems to claim the right to predict and order all human futures.

现代的神谕，就像古代的神谕一样，构成了一个特权阶级，他们垄断了新的知识形式，或者在他们描绘未来的新版本时，也会对大量的观众产生恐慌和狂喜。此外，现代的科学精英们也经常像古代文明的占星家一样，在统治阶级的人民和仆人中扮演着同样的双重角色。他们也依赖于类似的权威。古代的占星家利用他们的能力来预测行星的行为，通过历法来安排社会生活，并管理农业。天文学秩序的知识反过来支持他们的权威，成为能够驯服未来的万能预言家。同样，现代科学家利用他们的能力来预测狭窄、封闭系统的行为，从而宣称拥有预测和命令所有人类未来的权利。

And yet while the future as a prophetic form has a long history, the future as a predictable region of experience never appears. For the future is always offstage and never quite makes its entrance into history; the future is a time that never arrives but is always awaited. To understand the dilemma of the future, we might take a cue from the scholar reflecting on the loss of interest in history, who asked, “Does the past have a future?” and ourselves inquire, “What sort of a past has the future had?” The future as an idea indeed has a definite history and has served as a powerful political and cultural weapon, particularly in the last two centuries. During this period the idea of the future has been presented and functioned in American and British life in three quite distinct ways.

然而，尽管未来作为一种预言形式有着悠久的历史，但未来作为一个可预测的经验领域却从未出现过。因为未来总是在舞台之外，从来没有完全进入历史;未来是一个永远不会到来的时刻，但它总是等待着我们。为了理解未来的困境，我们可能从反映对历史失去兴趣的学者身上得到一个启示，，他们问:“过去有未来吗?”而我们自己则问:“未来有什么样的过去?”“未来作为一种思想确实具有明确的历史，并成为一种强大的政治和文化武器，特别是在过去的两个世纪。在这一时期，对未来的设想已经在美国和英国的生活中以三种截然不同的方式呈现出来。

First, the future is often regarded as cause for a revitalization of optimism, an exhortation to the public to keep “faith,” and is embodied in commemorative expositions of progress, world fairs, oratorical invocations, and the declaration of national and international goals. Second, the future, in the politics of literary prophecy, is attractively portrayed as the fulfillment of a particular ideology or idealism. The past and present are rewritten to evidence a momentous changing of the times in which particular policies and technologies will yield a way out of current dilemmas and a new age of peace, democracy, and ecological harmony will reign. Third, the future has acquired a new expression in the development of modern technologies of information processing and decision making by computer and cybernated devices. Here the future is a participation ritual of technological exorcism whereby the act of collecting data and allowing the public to participate in extrapolating trends and making choices is con- sidered a method of cleansing confusion and relieving us from human fallibilities.

  1. 未来常被认为是振兴乐观主义的原因，是对公众保持“信仰”的一种劝勉，它体现在进步、世界博览会、演说和国家和国际目标的宣言中。其次，在文学预言的政治中，未来被描绘成一种特定的意识形态或理想主义的实现。过去和现在都被改写，以证明时代的重大变化，特别是在这个时代，特定的政策和技术将产生一种摆脱当前困境的出路，并将迎来和平、民主和生态和谐的新时代。第三，在现代信息处理技术的发展和计算机和网络设备的决策过程中，未来已经得到了一个新的表达。在这里，未来是技术驱魔的一种参与仪式，即收集数据并允许公众参与推断趋势和作出选择的行为，是一种消除混乱和使我们摆脱人类错误的方法。

I

Throughout American history an exhortation to the future has been a standard inaugural for observing key anniversaries and renewed declarations of national purpose. At celebrations of science and industry and in the orations of public officials, the invocation of a sublime technological future elevates the prosaic and pedestrian commonplaces of the “American creed” with its promises of progress and prosperity to an appeal for public confidence in established institutions and industrial practices. This exhortation to the sublime future is an attempt to ward off dissent and to embellish cosmetically the blemishes of the body politic with imagery of a greater future for all.

在美国历史上，对未来的劝诫一直是纪念重大纪念日和重申国家目标的标准仪式。在科学和工业的庆祝活动中，在公共官员的演讲中，对崇高技术未来的召唤，将“美国信条”的平凡和平凡的公共场所提升为“进步和繁荣”的承诺，以呼吁公众对已建立的机构和工业实践持有信心。这种对崇高未来的告诫是一种试图避开不同意见的尝试，以美化身体的瑕疵，为所有人描绘更美好的未来。

The strategy of the future as exhortation was exemplified by the Centennial Exhibition staged in Philadelphia

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